A mere 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager berated him over missing a through-ball. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, the question was whether Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause for the side's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. As the in-form star curled home his second to restore his side's advantage, the boss discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row , despite not winning their opening six fixtures, now sit a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult question to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, even as the positive results have accumulated.
Per the data, twice all season has the side had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team that have just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem strangely fragile – yet currently the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach looks like to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to save the day with some precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and once more when facing the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the upright from the edge of the area. For his second proved to be a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents managed more shots and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.
A statistical correction might be the biggest rival they have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing his shots into the top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists another reality whereby, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger may rediscover the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine the young forward as the year closed would be leading a title charge and appearing as an essential player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the match-winner faced the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
