Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
